Research

Access my Google Scholar page.

Work in progress + working papers

• The persistence of climate shocks on global agricultural productivity
  Ariel Ortiz-Bobea, Yurou He and David B. Lobell

• The economics of crop failure
  Ariel Ortiz-Bobea and Pierre Mérel

• Unpacking the drivers of U.S. agricultural greenhouse gas emissions
  Robert G. Chambers, Ariel Ortiz-Bobea, Jeisson Prieto and Simone Pieralli

• Creative destruction or lasting decline? Evidence from U.S. post-disaster recovery
  Yurou He, Ariel Ortiz-Bobea and Jiong Wu

• Accounting for quality more than doubles estimated heat damages to U.S. milk production
  Jeisson Prieto, Ziyi Lin, Kristan F. Reed, Christopher A. Wolf and Ariel Ortiz-Bobea
  under review

• Climate Change as a Determinant of Migrant Family Reunification
  Brian H. Park, Arnab K. Basu, Nancy H. Chau, Filiz Garip and Ariel Ortiz-Bobea
  revisions requested - Networks and Spatial Economics

• Heterogeneity and Market Adaptation to Climate Change in Dynamic-Spatial Equilibrium
  Ivan Rudik, Gary Lyn, Weiliang Tan and Ariel Ortiz-Bobea
  revisions requested - JPE Macro

• The impact of extreme heat on farm finances: farm-level evidence from Kansas
  Osama Sajid, Jenny Ifft and Ariel Ortiz-Bobea
  [press release] [policy brief]
  resubmitted - AJAE

• Harnessing satellite data for the next generation of agri-environmental policies
  David Wuepper, Jan Dirk Wegner, Nikolina Mileva, Jean Bouchat, Shijuan Chen, Ariel Ortiz-Bobea, Robert Finger
  accepted - Environmental Research Letters

• Unpacking the growth of global agricultural greenhouse gas emissions
  Ariel Ortiz-Bobea and Simone Pieralli
  in press - Science Advances

Publications

2025

• Impacts of Large-Scale Solar-Enabling Legislation on Farmland Values
  Zhiyun Li, Wendgong Zang and Ariel Ortiz-Bobea
  Land Economics
  [preprint]

• Large increases in public R&D investment are needed to avoid declines of US agricultural productivity
  Ariel Ortiz-Bobea, Robert G. Chambers, Yurou He and David B. Lobell
  Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS)
  [press release] [podcast] [code + data] [preprint] [coverage: Grist AP]

• The Role of Staple Food Prices in Deforestation: Evidence from Cambodia
  Steven W. Wilcox, David R. Just and Ariel Ortiz-Bobea
  Land Economics

2024

• New York State Climate Impacts Assessment Chapter 03: Agriculture
  Aller, D., A.M. Chatrchyan, A. Calixto, J. Cummings, A. Ortiz-Bobea, G. Peck, J. Schouten, B. Weikert, E. Wolters, A. Stevens
  Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences
  [press release]

• Climate change exacerbates the environmental impacts of agriculture
  Yang, Y., D. Tilman, Z. Jin, P. Smith, C.B. Barrett, Y. Zhu, J. Burney, P. D’Odorico, P. Fantke, J. Fargione, J.C. Finlay, M.C. Rulli, L. Sloat, K. Jan van Groenigen, P.C. West, L. Ziska, A.M. Michalak, M. Clark, J. Colquhoun, T. Garg, K.A. Garrett, C. Geels, R.R. Hernandez, M. Herrero, W. Hutchison, M. Jain, J.M. Jungers, B. Liu, N.D. Mueller, A. Ortiz-Bobea, J. Schewe, J. Song, J. Verheyen, P. Vitousek, Y. Wada, L. Xia, X. Zhang, M. Zhuang, D.B. Lobell
  Science
  [press release] [op ed / blog]

• Double cropping as an adaptation to climate change in the United States
  Matthew Gammans, Ariel Ortiz-Bobea and Pierre Mérel
  American Journal of Agricultural Economics
  [press release]

• A scalable crop yield estimation framework based on remote sensing of solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF)
  Kira, O., J. Wen, J. Han, A.J. McDonald, C.B. Barrett, A. Ortiz-Bobea, Y. Liu, L. You, N. Mueller, Y. Sun
  Environmental Research Letters
  [press release]

2023

• Temperature Shocks and Industry Earnings News
  Jawad Addoum, David Ng and Ariel Ortiz-Bobea
  Journal of Financial Economics
  [preprint] [award]

• Structural Transformation, Agriculture, Climate, and the Environment
  Chris B. Barrett, Ariel Ortiz-Bobea and Trinh Pham
  Review of Environmental Economics and Policy

• A GNN-RNN approach for harnessing geospatial and temporal information: application to crop yield prediction
  Joshua Fan, Junwen Bai, Zhiyun Li, Ariel Ortiz-Bobea and Carla P. Gomes
  Proceedings of the AAAI conference on artificial intelligence
  [code + data] [award]

2022

• On the Timing of Relevant Weather Conditions in Agriculture
  Journal of the Agricultural and Applied Economics Association
  Zhiyun Li and Ariel Ortiz-Bobea
  [code + data]

• Temperature and children’s Nutrition: evidence from West Africa
  Journal of Environmental Economics and Management
  Sylvia Blom, Ariel Ortiz-Bobea and John Hoddinott
  [press release]

2021

• The Empirical Analysis of Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation in Agriculture
  Ariel Ortiz-Bobea
  Handbook of Agricultural Economics
  [code + data] [preprint]

• How big is the ‘lemons’ problem? Historical evidence from French wines
  Pierre Merél, Ariel Ortiz-Bobea and Emmanuel Paroissien
  European Economic Review
  [code + data] [press release] [award]

• A Vulnerability Index for Priority Targeting of Agricultural Crops Under a Changing Climate
  Calum Turvey, Jiajun Du, Yurou He, Ariel Ortiz-Bobea
  Climatic Change

• Anthropogenic climate change has slowed global agricultural productivity growth
  Ariel Ortiz-Bobea, Toby R. Ault, Carlos M. Carrillo, Robert G. Chambers and David B. Lobell
  Nature Climate Change
  [code + data] [press release] [video abstract] [discussion]

• How weather affects the decomposition of Total Factor Productivity in U.S. agriculture
  Alejandro Plastina, Sergio Lence and Ariel Ortiz-Bobea
  Agricultural Economics

2020

• Temperature Shocks and Establishment Sales
  Jawad Addoum, David Ng and Ariel Ortiz-Bobea
  Review of Financial Studies

• The Role of Nonfarm Influences in Ricardian Estimates of Climate Change Impacts on U.S. Agriculture
  Ariel Ortiz-Bobea
  American Journal of Agricultural Economics
  [code + data] [award]

2019

• Unpacking the climatic drivers of U.S. agricultural yields
  Ariel Ortiz-Bobea, Haoying Wang, Carlos Carrillo and Toby R. Ault
  Environmental Research Letters
  [press release]

• Market-Driven Corn Monoculture in the US Midwest
  Haoying Wang and Ariel Ortiz-Bobea
  Agricultural and Resource Economics Review

2018

• Growing Climatic Sensitivity of US Agriculture Linked to Technological Change and Regional Specialization
  Ariel Ortiz-Bobea, Erwin Knippenberg and Robert G. Chambers
  Science Advances
  [code + data] [press release]

• US Maize Yield Growth and Countervailing Climate Change Impacts
  Ariel Ortiz-Bobea
  Chapter in Climate Smart Agriculture

• Climate Change and California Agriculture
  Katrina Jessoe, Pierre Mérel and Ariel Ortiz-Bobea
  Chapter in California Agriculture: Dimensions and Issues

2017

• Is Another Genetic Revolution Needed to Offset Climate Change Impacts for US Maize Yields?
  Ariel Ortiz-Bobea and Jesse Tack
  Environmental Research Letters

• The Impact of Climate Change on Cereal Yields: Statistical Evidence from France
  Matthew Gammans, Pierre Mérel and Ariel Ortiz-Bobea
  Environmental Research Letters

• Using the Delphi method to value protection of the Amazon rainforest
  Strand, J., R.T. Carson, S. Navrud, A. Ortiz-Bobea and J.R. Vincent
  Ecological Economics

2013

• Modeling the Structure of Adaptation in Climate Change Impact Assessment for Agriculture
  Ariel Ortiz-Bobea and Richard E. Just
  American Journal of Agricultural Economics